What are odds?
Odds are basically a mathematical expectation
and approximation of a certain outcome of a
sporting event. For example, the odds of John
Smith winning the French Open are 3-1.
So if a casino sportsbook posts odds of 3-1
for John Smith to win the French Open a bettor
can wager $10 on Mr. Smith and can expect a
return of $30 (in addition to his original $10)
if Smith wins the French. Las Vegas casinos post
odds for all major games and sporting events in
America and some international ones as well.
Odds can take many different forms such as who
is going to win the game; can they win the game
by this much (a point spread line); who is going
to win the division; who is going to win the
race; or who is going to win the tournament.
There are just as many different ways to bet
these odds (for more information about betting
click here).
How are odds made ?
Odds for Las Vegas sportsbooks are made by
sports “experts” who use their knowledge,
experience, inside information and a host of
other factors - mainly statistical – to
determine the likely outcome of any particular
sports contest. Much of this process is educated
guesswork. But the goal of oddsmaking for the
casino oddsmakers is not to predict the outcome
of a game, it is to furnish the bettors with a
betting line that will split the public in two
with half of the people betting one side and
half on the other. This is where “juice” or
vigorish comes into play. The “juice” is the 10%
that bettors have to pay if they bet football or
basketball at 11 to win 10.
How do odds change?
Sportsbooks move lines to reflect betting trends to balance the betting so that the book won’t lose gobs of money on a particular game or event. If a lot of money is bet on John Smith to win the French Open at 3-1, the sportsbook will move the odds on Smith down to 2-1. Here is another example: if the Raiders are getting a lot of money at -4 ½ the boys in the book will move Oakland up to -5 to try to tempt people to bet the other side. The sportsbook must be careful when they move the lines so as to avoid a “middle”. A middle occurs when the line moves so much one way that sharp bettors who played one way at one end of the line move bet the other way at the other end. This creates a 1 or 2 point spread between the extremes where both bets cover and the sportsbook gets nailed.
An example might be helpful. Lets say that Oakland starts off at -4 ½ and ends up at -6. Players who took Oakland at -4 ½ could play the other side at +6 and hope the Raiders win by five. If this happens the casino got middled. If it doesn’t happen the bettors who took both sides lose only the juice on one of their bets. So the clever player gets a large payoff if the Raiders win by five or a small loss if they don’t. This is smart betting.
Why are Odds Made?
Odds are made to facilitate betting. If there are no odds or betting lines casinos have no way to take bets, and casinos make their money by accepting bets.
Who Makes the Odds?
Most of the odds and betting lines in Las Vegas are made by Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC), an organization that has been providing lines to the various sportsbooks since 1982. LVSC also advises international clients. The company was founded by Roxy Roxborough who retired in 1999. Roxborough now writes a syndicated column on sportsbetting called “America’s Line” which appears in over one hundred newspapers.
Oddsmakers vs Handicappers
Many people confuse these terms, thinking them identical. They are not. An oddsmaker makes the line and the handicapper tries to break the line. Oddsmakers work for the house so their goal is to make the sportsbook money by putting out good lines that will draw interest on both sides.
Handicappers are on the other side of the counter, the only side that they are concerned with is their own. Handicappers are generally serious bettors who take time to evaluate the lines before making their picks. They usually do their own research on the games they might be interested in playing, and many of them employ the same methods oddsmakers use. Some handicappers even make their own “lines” and compare these to the official lines, and where there is a significant discrepancy the ‘capper makes his move. Most wait until the lines are posted and then they try to pick their spots.
Since most football lines are posted about a week before the game itself takes place, football lends itself to the most in depth analysis for the ‘capper, who has several days to marshal his forces.
On the other hand, baseball, basketball and hockey lines are usually posted the day before the contest, giving the serious better little time to do his homework. The internet is awash with handicapping services that promise, for a small fee (or sometimes a large one), to make their customers rich and relieve them of the tedium that painstaking research brings. The quality of such services is uneven, and the wise bettor should be cautious before choosing one.
A Brief History of Oddsmaking:
It is generally conceded that modern oddsmaking began in Las Vegas in 1960 at the Plaza hotel where the first point spread lines on football games were posted. Since then the sports betting industry has mushroomed into the giant that it is now (at least if you are a Nevadan). Untold millions of dollars are won and lost every year in a legal industry that is dwarfed by tens of millions changing hands in the illegal gambling community. But all bookies whether legit or otherwise get their odds from Las Vegas.
|
