Power Ratings What How Who Why?
What is a Power Rating?

Basically, a power rating is a mathematical approximation of a particular team’s strength on paper which is represented by a number. The better the team is, the higher the power rating number will be. All sorts of factors go into the calculation of power ratings including, but not limited to, the specific team’s offensive and defensive capabilities, coaching prowess and the second team. For example, if one is making a power rating for a football team one would take into consideration such elements as the team’s running game, passing game, rush defense, pass defense, special teams, third down efficiency, coaching, record on grass, record on turf, turnover ratio etc. For a basketball team, a power rating would include average points scored, average points allowed, free throw percentage, average number of fouls committed per game, coaching and bench strength.

All these elements are then plugged into a mathematical formula and the resulting solution to that equation is the power rating number. Different handicapping services use different formulas. Power ratings are updated throughout the course of the season to reflect trades, injuries, suspensions and the general play of the team in question. So when two teams meet their respective power ratings are compared, and after a small adjustment for home field/court is made, a winner is projected. Power ratings are calculated for all the major sports though they are used primarily in football and basketball.

How Are Power Ratings Used?
 

Consider the following theoretical example:

 
Team:
Power Rating:
Home Field Advantage:
New Orleans Saints 35.6 2
Atlanta Falcons 33.2   2
 

As we can see the Saints have a higher power rating and should therefore be the better team. However, if the Saints played the Falcons in Atlanta the handicapper would add 2 to the Falcons’ power rating for home field advantage giving the Falcons a power rating of 35.2 for that game versus the Saints’ rating of 35.6. This is a virtual tie so the line for the game would be either a pick-em or one of the teams would be a 1 point favorite. On the other hand, if the game were held in New Orleans the Saints would have a power rating advantage of 37.6 (35.6 + 2 for home field) to 33.2 and would likely be 3 ½ or 4 point favorite.

 

Another Example:

 
Team:
Power Rating:
Home Field Advantage:
New Jersey Nets 90.4 4
Orlando Magic 83.7 4
 

New Jersey at Orlando: NJ PR = 90.4; ORL PR = 87.7 (83.7 + 4). 
90.4 – 87.7 = 2.7 Thus New Jersey should lay 2 or 3 points

Orlando at New Jersey: NJ PR = 94.4 (90.4 +4); ORL PR = 83.7. 
94.4 – 83.7 = 10.7  So New Jersey should be 10 or 11 point favorites.

So power ratings are used not only to calculate the probable winner but also the approximate point spread. Handicappers will tweak the point spread to reflect non-mathematical considerations such as fierce college rivalries or southern teams playing outside in the unforgiving bitter cold of the North.

Who Uses Power Ratings?

Everybody. Oddsmaking services use power ratings to calculate lines. Bettors, both professional and amateur, use them to try to beat those same lines. And handicapping services employ power ratings both to calculate their sellable picks and to bolster their reputations as the place where the winners are (as they are ever fond of reminding  everybody). 

Why Are Power Ratings Used ?

Because they work. Determining the outcome of sports contests is by nature a risky proposition and using power ratings in that determination appears to be, on the average, the best way to predict results.Obviously, many other factors come into play in the handicapping process but power ratings are a good base upon which to build. It is generally accepted in the gaming community that one cannot be a serious football man without consulting power ratings in some form or another. Power ratings are less popular with baseball handicappers because of the tremendous influence of pitching.

 
 
 
 
 
 
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